Greene County SWCD

Large 2009 Gulf Of Mexico 'Dead Zone' Predicted

ScienceDaily (June 18, 2009) — University of Michigan aquatic ecologist Donald Scavia and his colleagues say this year's Gulf of Mexico "dead zone" could be one of the largest on record, continuing a decades-long trend that threatens the health of a half-billion-dollar fishery.

Mississippi dead zone in 2004. This year's Gulf of Mexico "dead zone" could be one of the largest on record, continuing a decades-long trend that threatens the health of a half-billion-dollar fishery. (Credit: Photo courtesy of NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio)

The scientists' latest forecast, released June 18, calls for a Gulf dead zone of between 7,450 and 8,456 square miles—an area about the size of New Jersey.

Most likely, this summer's Gulf dead zone will blanket about 7,980 square miles, roughly the same size as last year's zone, Scavia said. That would put the years 2009, 2008 and 2001 in a virtual tie for second place on the list of the largest Gulf dead zones.

It would also mean that the five largest Gulf dead zones on record have occurred since 2001. The biggest of these oxygen-starved, or hypoxic, regions developed in 2002 and measured 8,484 square miles.

"The growth of these dead zones is an ecological time bomb," said Scavia, a professor at the U-M School of Natural Resources and Environment and director of the U-M Graham Environmental Sustainability Institute.

"Without determined local, regional and national efforts to control them, we are putting major fisheries at risk," said Scavia, who also produces annual dead-zone forecasts for the Chesapeake Bay.

The Gulf dead zone forms each spring and summer off the Louisiana and Texas coast when oxygen levels drop too low to support most life in bottom and near-bottom waters.

The Gulf hypoxia research team is supported by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research and includes scientists from Louisiana State University and the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium.

The forecast for a large 2009 Gulf hypoxic zone is based on above-normal flows in the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers this spring, which delivered large amounts of the nutrient nitrogen. In April and May, flows in the two rivers were 11 percent above average.

Additional flooding of the Mississippi since May could result in a dead zone that exceeds the upper limit of the forecast, the scientists said.

"The high water-volume flows, coupled with nearly triple the nitrogen concentrations in these rivers over the past 50 years from human activities, has led to a dramatic increase in the size of the dead zone," said Gene Turner, a lead forecast modeler at Louisiana State University.

Northeast of the Gulf, low water flows into the Chesapeake Bay shaped Scavia's 2009 forecast for that hypoxia zone.

The Bay's oxygen-starved zone is expected to shrink to between 0.7 and 1.8 cubic miles, with a "most likely" volume of 1.2 cubic miles—the lowest level since 2001 and third-lowest on record. The drop is largely due to a regional dry spell that lasted from January through April, Scavia said. Continued high flows in June, beyond the period used for the forecasts, suggest the actual size may be near the higher end of the forecast range.

"While it's encouraging to see that this year's Chesapeake Bay forecast calls for a significant drop in the extent of the dead zone, we must keep in mind that the anticipated reduction is due mainly to decreased precipitation and water runoff into the Bay," he said.

"The predicted 2009 dead-zone decline does not result from cutbacks in the use of nitrogen, which remains one of the key drivers of hypoxia in the Bay."

Farmland runoff containing fertilizers and livestock waste—some of it from as far away as the Corn Belt—is the main source of the nitrogen and phosphorus that cause the Gulf of Mexico dead zone.

Each year in late spring and summer, these nutrients make their way down the Mississippi River and into the Gulf, fueling explosive algae blooms there. When the algae die and sink, bottom-dwelling bacteria decompose the organic matter, consuming oxygen in the process. The result is an oxygen-starved region in bottom and near-bottom waters: the dead zone.

The same process occurs in the Chesapeake Bay, where nutrients in the Susquehanna River trigger the event. In both the Gulf and the Bay, fish, shrimp and crabs are forced to leave the hypoxic zone. Animals that cannot move perish.

The annual hypoxia forecasts helps coastal managers, policy makers, and the public better understand what causes dead zones. The models that generate the forecasts have been used to determine the nutrient-reduction targets required to reduce the size of the dead zone.

"As with weather forecasts, the Gulf forecast uses multiple models to predict the range of the expected size of the dead zone. The strong track record of these models reinforces our confidence in the link between excess nutrients from the Mississippi River and the dead zone," said Robert Magnien, director of NOAA's Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research.

U.S. Geological Survey data on spring river flow and nutrient concentrations inform the computer models that produce the hypoxia forecasts.

The official size of the 2009 hypoxic zone will be announced following a NOAA-supported monitoring survey led by the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium on July 18-26. In addition, NOAA's Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program's (SEAMAP) is currently providing near real-time data on the hypoxic zone during a five-week summer fish survey in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

University of Michigan (2009, June 18). Large 2009 Gulf Of Mexico 'Dead Zone' Predicted. ScienceDaily. Retrieved June 22, 2009, from http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/06/090618124956.htm

EDUCATION/OUTREACH

Pursuit of No-Till Excellence
Barry Fisher
State Agronomist,
Natural Resources Conservation Service

Nearly 40 Team Members of the Indiana Conservation Partnership joined another 800 farmers and agriculture professionals for four days of intensive Conservation Cropping Systems learning at the 17^th annual National No-Tillage Conference held in Indianapolis Jan. 14 to 17, 2009.

The group herd from 46 speakers from North America and Argentina offering the best no-till management practices and ideas to help no-tillers improve their bottom line. Speakers included no-tillers, agronomists and university experts on topics from fertility management, precision ag, soil quality, seed placement, cover crops and much more designed to push up yields with less cost.

One of the largest crowds in the conference history attended 20 general sessions, chose from 15 classrooms sessions and participated in several of the 60 offered roundtable discussions. Greatest of all was probably the interaction and networking among the best no-tillers in the country.

The quiet revolution of no-till farming continues to grow into complete conservation cropping systems, integrating cover crops, precision technology and nutrient management advancements to improve soil quality, yield and economic gain.

Each year, no-till technology advancements, offer farmers the ability to refine nutrient and pest management which have significantly increased the efficiency of these inputs. This not only optimizes their farm economics, but benefits our non farm neighbors with cleaner water, and air while significantly reducing the energy required for food production.

Most will reinvest dollars saved in these efficiencies in the very machinery and technology upgrades that will take them even further in conservation implementation. This is good for the economy and this is good for the environment.

As more and more farmers pursue the benefits of these conservation cropping systems, the Indiana Conservation Partnership remains committed to providing technical and financial assistance to these producers for successful and sustainable adoption. Please stop by or contact your local USDA Service Center for information on programs, upcoming workshops or technical assistance if you think you’re ready to move your farm to a no-till or strip-till conservation cropping system.

New opportunities will emerge for local agricultural businesses and services. Economic growth for the agriculture industry is secured.

We can bundle the right combination of NRCS practices into an “Energy Conservation System” that does more than save energy. Energy Conservation Systems also sequester Carbon in the soil. Practices like no-till, cover crops, conservation buffers and nutrient management lead to significant improvement in soil, water and air quality while building soil organic matter. As Organic Carbon increases in the soil, total soil Nitrogen content also builds. Consider this your Nitrogen bank account. Every pound saved in the soil is literally one that didn’t go down the tube to destinations unknown. There’s no better contamination filter than carbon, so we all benefit when we install the conservation practices that improve the earth’s filtration system. “Healthy Soil= Healthy Earth”. We have the ability.

NRCS Energy Conservation Systems are good for the economy…they are great for the environment…and best of all they are doable!

The time is now, if we are to capture the potential!

Enviroscape- Enviroscape® models bring the environment to life in a tabletop setting, where people of all ages can use visual, interactive tools to gain a better understanding of the effect we have on the ecosystems that surround us. You can demonstrate the negative effects we can have on our environment through the application of pollution sources and simulated rain on the landscape top, then show the best management practices that will help minimize that impact

Envirothon- Envirothon is a competitive environmental event where teams from high schools across the state are tested on their knowledge of soils, wildlife, forestry, and aquatics, as well as a current issue topic that differs each year. Regionals are held in the spring with the top three teams advancing to the State Competition from there the top team is invited to compete at Nationals against 42 other states and 8 Canadian Provinces. Envirothon opens doors to scholarship opportunities for students and equipment funding opportunities for schools

Brochures, Booklets, Pamphlets on a variety of subjects such as:
               Agronomy Guide
               Favored Food & Cover
               Small Scale/Small Field Conservation
               Working Trees for Water Quality, Agriculture, and Wildlife
               Managing Deer Damage
               Agro forestry Notes